Tropical cyclone activity
| Tropical cyclones ending during the month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWP | NEP | NAT | NI | SWI | AUS | Total | |
| Total number ending during the month | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Tropical cyclones active during the month | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Identifier | Basin | Start date | End date | 1-minute MSW | 10-minute MSW |
| - | 20P | AUS | 28 February | 01 March | 35 | 30 |
| Ophelia | 21S | AUS | 29 February | 06 March | 65 | 60 |
| Jokwe | 22S | SWI | 05 March | 15 March | 100 | 105 |
| Kamba | 23S | SWI | 07 March | 12 March | 110 | 100 |
| - | 24P | AUS | 20 March | 21 March | 35 | 30 |
| Lola | 25S | SWI | 21 March | 26 March | 45 | 35 |
| Pancho | 26S | AUS | 24 March | 29 March | 95 | 90 |
Basin name abbreviations:
NWP: North-West
Pacific (west of 180° E)
NEP: North-East
Pacific (east of 180° E)
NAT: North
Atlantic
NI: North
Indian (west of Malay Peninsula)
SWI: South-West
Indian (west of 90° E)
AUS: Australian
(east of 90° E)
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1
minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10
minutes (JMA Japan, Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than
10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are
obtained from different warning centres.
Tropical cyclones still active at the end of the month
NoneForecast error statistics
The Met Office global numerical weather prediction model produces a 6-day forecast every 12 hours. The performance of the model in forecasting this month's tropical cyclones is assessed below. Mean error statistics for each storm that ended during the month are presented together with a final table of statistics for all storms ending this month. Verification is performed at 24-hour intervals up to forecast time T+120. Some mean error statistics for last year's storms are included for the purposes of a comparison. The present global model has a resolution of 0.5625° x 0.375° x 50 levels. This is equivalent to a horizontal resolution of 62 km x 42 km at the equator.
Individual tropical cyclone summaries
Name: - Identifier: 20P
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (Coral Sea)
Start date: 28.02.2008 End
date: 01.03.2008
1-minute MSW: 35 knots
10-minute MSW: 30 knots
There are no verification statistics or forecast plot for this tropical cyclone since its 10-minute averaged winds did not reach tropical storm strength.
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Name: OPHELIA Identifier: 21S
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (South-East Indian)
Start date: 29.02.2008 End
date: 06.03.2008
1-minute MSW: 65 knots 10-minute MSW: 60 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Mean DX | 22 | -49 | -153 | -268 | -529 | -969 |
| Mean DY | 5 | 29 | -2 | -131 | -400 | -845 |
| Mean AT | -18 | 20 | 84 | 76 | -127 | -805 |
| Mean CT | 21 | 13 | -37 | -237 | -602 | -1003 |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 13 | 45 | 43 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 39 | 113 | 208 | 306 | 671 | 1287 |
| 2006-07 DPE * | 72 | 153 | 355 | 665 | 1075 | 1537 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 33 | 71 | 20 | 100 | -100 |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006-7 season in the AUS basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
A few early forecasts failed to recurve this storm towards the south, resulting in large errors at long lead times. However, later forecasts were better and errors were below last season's average and skill scores high.
Name: JOKWE Identifier: 22S
Basin: SOUTH-WEST INDIAN
Start date: 05.03.2008 End
date: 15.03.2008
1-minute MSW: 100 knots 10-minute MSW: 105 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 19 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 9 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 56 |
| Mean DX | 1 | -28 | -138 | -296 | -497 | -492 |
| Mean DY | 12 | -58 | -171 | -337 | -534 | -656 |
| Mean AT | 3 | -70 | -107 | -151 | -137 | -51 |
| Mean CT | 14 | -33 | -139 | -160 | -202 | -266 |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 13 | 16 | 0 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 41 | 145 | 284 | 485 | 766 | 816 |
| 2006-07 DPE * | 54 | 130 | 283 | 458 | 665 | 802 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 29 | 73 | 23 | 9 | 60 |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006-7 season in the SWI basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Track errors were near to or slightly above last season's average. Skill scores were modest. The main error was predicting a track with landfall over Mozambique whereas the storm turned south in the Mozambique Channel and slowed before dissipating.
Name: KAMBA Identifier: 23S
Basin: SOUTH-WEST INDIAN
Start date: 07.03.2008 End
date: 12.03.2008
1-minute MSW: 110 knots 10-minute MSW: 100 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | -13 | 23 | -95 | -10 | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | -9 | 25 | 0 | 44 | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | -20 | -20 | -63 | 22 | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | -10 | 32 | -64 | -40 | **** | **** |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 65 | 68 | 93 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 52 | 95 | 219 | 46 | **** | **** |
| 2006-07 DPE * | 54 | 130 | 283 | 458 | 665 | 802 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 60 | -33 | -100 | **** | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006-7 season in the SWI basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Track errors were low and skill scores high for this storm.
Name: - Identifier: 24P
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (South Pacific)
Start date: 20.03.2008 End
date: 21.03.2008
1-minute MSW: 35 knots 10-minute MSW: 30 knots
There are no verification statistics or forecast plot for this tropical cyclone since its 10-minute averaged winds did not reach tropical storm strength
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Name: LOLA Identifier: 25S
Basin: SOUTH-WEST INDIAN
Start date: 21.03.2008 End
date: 26.03.2008
1-minute MSW: 45 knots 10-minute MSW: 35 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | -32 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | -11 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | 28 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | -14 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 32 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| 2006-07 DPE * | 54 | 130 | 283 | 458 | 665 | 802 |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006-7 season in the SWI basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Lola only briefly reached tropical storm status and just one forecast was verified.
Name: PANCHO Identifier: 26S
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (SE Indian)
Start date: 24.03.2008 End
date: 29.03.2008
1-minute MSW: 95 knots 10-minute MSW: 90 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | -13 | -57 | -167 | -292 | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | -13 | -57 | -167 | -292 | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | 22 | -76 | -282 | -449 | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | -29 | 5 | 53 | 242 | **** | **** |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 44 | 49 | 49 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 67 | 114 | 322 | 569 | **** | **** |
| 2006-07 DPE * | 72 | 153 | 355 | 665 | 1075 | 1537 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 100 | 50 | 100 | **** | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006-7 season in the AUS basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Track errors were below last season’s average and skill scores high, although there was a marked slow bias in forecasts for this storm.
Summary of all tropical cyclones
Mean error statistics for all tropical cyclones (of at least tropical storm strength) which have ended this month are shown below.
Total number of depressions ending this month: 7
Number of storms used in statistics below: 5
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 46 | 37 | 29 | 21 | 14 | 10 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 60 |
| Mean DX | 1 | -31 | -141 | -276 | -504 | -572 |
| Mean DY | 10 | -23 | -115 | -284 | -505 | -688 |
| Mean AT | -1 | -43 | -80 | -117 | -135 | -177 |
| Mean CT | 3 | -7 | -80 | -134 | -287 | -389 |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 32 | 38 | 22 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 46 | 125 | 264 | 429 | 746 | 895 |
| 2006-7 DPE * | 62 | 138 | 302 | 498 | 732 | 873 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 46 | 59 | 24 | 29 | 33 |
* DPE for all southern hemisphere storms in 2006-7 season
Overall, track forecast errors were below or near to last season's average. Skill scores against CLIPER were good. The overall intensity tendency skill score was 42%.