Tropical cyclone activity
| Tropical cyclones ending during the month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWP | NEP | NAT | NI | SWI | AUS | Total | |
| Total number ending during the month | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Tropical cyclones active during the month | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Identifier | Basin | Start date | End date | 1-minute MSW | 10-minute MSW |
| Melanie | 08S | AUS | 28 December | 01 January | 60 | 60 |
| Elnus | 09S | SWI | 31 December | 04 January | 40 | 35 |
| Helen | 10S | AUS | 04 January | 06 January | 45 | 50 |
| Elisa | 11P | AUS | 10 January | 11 January | 45 | 50 |
| - | 01W | NWP | 13 January | 16 January | 35 | - |
| Funa | 12P | AUS | 16 January | 20 January | 105 | 95 |
Basin name abbreviations:
NWP: North-West
Pacific (west of 180°E)
NEP: North-East
Pacific (east of 180°E)
NAT: North
Atlantic
NI: North
Indian (west of Malay Peninsula)
SWI: South-West
Indian (west of 90°E)
AUS: Australian
(east of 90°E)
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1
minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10
minutes (JMA Japan, Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than
10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are
obtained from different warning centres.
Tropical cyclones still active at the end of the month
| Tropical cyclones active during the month | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Identifier | Basin | Start date |
| Fame | 13S | SWI | 25 January |
| Gula | 14S | SWI | 27 January |
| Gene | 15P | AUS | 27 January |
Forecast error statistics
The Met Office global Numerical Weather Prediction model produces a 6-day forecast every 12 hours. The performance of the model in forecasting this month's tropical cyclones is assessed below. Mean error statistics for each storm that ended during the month are presented together with a final table of statistics for all storms ending this month. Verification is performed at 24 hour intervals up to forecast time T+120. Some mean error statistics for last year's storms are included for the purposes of a comparison. The present global model has a resolution of 0.5625°x 0.375°x 50 levels. This is equivalent to a horizontal resolution of 62km x 42km at the equator.
Individual tropical cyclone summaries
Name: MELANIE Identifier: 08S
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (South-east Indian)
Start date: 28.12.2007 End
date: 01.01.2008
1-minute MSW: 60 knots
10-minute MSW: 60 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | **** |
| Mean DX | 11 | 17 | 19 | -99 | -261 | **** |
| Mean DY | 4 | 41 | 0 | -33 | -145 | **** |
| Mean AT | -7 | 3 | -83 | -8 | -27 | **** |
| Mean CT | 43 | 44 | 7 | -103 | -294 | **** |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 37 | 55 | 82 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 71 | 99 | 153 | 140 | 296 | **** |
| 2006-07 DPE * | 62 | 149 | 351 | 665 | 1062 | 1533 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 71 | 100 | 100 | 100 | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006-7 season in the AUS basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Track forecasts were good for this storm with errors well below last season’s average and skill scores high.
Name: ELNUS Identifier: 09S
Basin:SOUTH-WEST INDIAN
Start date: 31.12.2007 End
date: 04.01.2008
1-minute MSW: 40 knots 10-minute MSW: 35 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | 19 | -31 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | -4 | 67 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | -18 | 29 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | 26 | 64 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 56 | 71 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| 2006-7 DPE * | 49 | 129 | 279 | 456 | 662 | 799 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 100 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006-7 season in the SWI basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Elnus was only briefly a tropical storm and just one forecast was verified.
Name: HELEN Identifier: 10S
Basin:AUSTRALIAN (Northern)
Start date: 04.01.2008 End
date: 06.01.2008
1-minute MSW: 45 knots 10-minute MSW: 50 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | 11 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | 39 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | -14 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | -10 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 45 | |||||
| 2006-7 DPE * | 62 | 149 | 351 | 665 | 1062 | 1533 |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006-7 season in the AUS basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Helen only briefly attained tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Name: ELISA Identifier: 11P
Basin:AUSTRALIAN (S Pacific)
Start date: 10.01.2008 End
date: 11.01.2008
1-minute MSW: 45 knots 10-minute MSW: 50 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | -77 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | -28 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | -68 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | -32 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 80 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| 2006-7 DPE * | 62 | 149 | 351 | 665 | 1062 | 1533 |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006-7 season in the AUS basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Elisa only briefly attained tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Name: - Identifier: 01W
Basin:NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 13.01.2008 End
date: 16.01.2008
1-minute MSW: 35 knots 10-minute MSW: - knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | -11 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | 12 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | 10 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | 14 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 49 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| 2007 DPE * | 62 | 125 | 193 | 266 | 404 | 469 |
* DPE for all storms in the 2007 season in the NWP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
01W only briefly attained tropical storm status (according to JTWC) and no forecasts were verified.
Name: FUNA Identifier: 12P
Basin:AUSTRALIAN (S Pacific)
Start date: 16.01.2008 End
date: 20.01.2008
1-minute MSW: 105 knots 10-minute MSW: 95 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | -11 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | 12 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | 10 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | 14 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 49 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| 2007 DPE * | 62 | 125 | 193 | 266 | 404 | 469 |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006-7 season in the AUS basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
The direction of motion of Funa was well predicted, but the forecast track was slow resulting in large errors at longer lead times. However, skill scores against CLIPER were very high.
Summary of all tropical cyclones
Mean error statistics for all tropical cyclones (of at least tropical storm strength) which have ended this month are shown below.
Total number of depressions ending this month: 6
Number of storms used in statistics below: 6
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 27 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | **** |
| Mean DX | 1 | -27 | -26 | -4 | 155 | **** |
| Mean DY | 2 | 21 | -107 | -248 | -523 | **** |
| Mean AT | 10 | -19 | -172 | -272 | -522 | **** |
| Mean CT | 13 | 7 | 0 | -78 | -311 | **** |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 56 | 64 | 73 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 57 | 98 | 211 | 341 | 682 | **** |
| 2006-7 DPE * | 54 | 136 | 298 | 496 | 727 | 870 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 60 | 40 | 33 | 0 | **** |
* DPE for all southern hemisphere storms in 2006-7 season
There were only two storms this month which lasted for any length of time. These produced track forecast errors below last season’s average and skill scores against CLIPER were high. The overall intensity tendency skill score was 45%.
