1. Tropical cyclone activity
1.1 Tropical cyclones ending during the month
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Basin name abbreviations:-
NWP : North-West Pacific (west of 180°E)
NEP : North-East Pacific (east of 180°E)
NAT : North Atlantic
NI : North Indian (west of Malay Peninsula)
SWI : South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
AUS : Australian (east of 90°E)
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1
minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10
minutes (JMA Japan, Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than
10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are
obtained from different warning centres.
1.2 Tropical cyclones still active at the end of the month
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2. FORECAST ERROR STATISTICS
The Met Office global Numerical Weather Prediction model produces a 6-day forecast every 12 hours. The performance of the model in forecasting this month's tropical cyclones is assessed below. Mean error statistics for each storm that ended during the month are presented together with a final table of statistics for all storms ending this month. Verification is performed at 24 hour intervals up to forecast time T+120. Some mean error statistics for last year's storms are included for the purposes of a comparison. The present global model has a resolution of 0.83°x 0.55°x 38 levels. This is equivalent to a horizontal resolution of 93km x 62km at the equator.
2.1 Individual Tropical Cyclone Summaries
Name: ADRIAN Identifier: 01E
Basin: NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
Start date: 17.05.2005 End date: 20.05.2005
1-minute MSW: 75 knots 10-minute MSW: -
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* DPE for all storms in the 2004 season in the NEP basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Adrian was a short lived tropical cyclone and only two forecasts were verified. However, the model predicted the genesis of this first storm of the North-East Pacific season well and also gave a good prediction of the unusual track of the storm.
2.2 Summary of all Tropical Cyclones
Although May is often the quietest month of the year, this year was exceptional in producing just one short-lived TC which ended during the month. Consequently, no summary of all TCs this month is required.