1. Tropical cyclone activity
1.1 Tropical cyclones ending during the month
|
|
Basin name abbreviations:-
NWP : North-West Pacific (west of 180°E)
NEP : North-East Pacific (east of 180°E)
NAT : North Atlantic
NI : North Indian (west of Malay Peninsula)
SWI : South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
AUS : Australian (east of 90°E)
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over
1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10
minutes (JMA Japan, southern hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.
1.2 Tropical cyclones still active at the end of the month
None.
2. FORECAST ERROR STATISTICS
The Met Office global Numerical Weather Prediction model produces a 6-day forecast every 12 hours. The performance of the model in forecasting this month's tropical cyclones is assessed below. Mean error statistics for each storm which ended during the month are presented together with a final table of statistics for all storms ending this month. Verification is performed at 24 hour intervals up to forecast time T+120. Some mean error statistics for last year's storms are included for the purposes of a comparison. The present global model has a resolution of 0.83°x 0.55°x 39 levels. This is equivalent to a horizontal resolution of 93km x 62km at the equator.
2.1 Individual Tropical Cyclone Summaries
Name: JAPHET Identifier: 19S
Basin: SOUTH-WEST INDIAN
Start date: 26.02.2003 End date: 03.03.2003
1-minute MSW: 115 knots 10-minute MSW: 100 knots
|
* DPE for all storms in the 2001-2 season in the SWI basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high. Early forecasts of landfall were a little too fast.
Name: GRAHAM Identifier: 20S
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (SE Indian)
Start date: 27.02.2003 End date: 01.03.2003
1-minute MSW: 35 knots 10-minute MSW: 55 knots
|
* DPE for all storms in the 2001-2 season in the AUS basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Only two forecasts were verified for this storm. Their average track forecast errors were small and landfall well predicted.
Name: HARRIET Identifier: 21S
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (SE Indian)
Start date: 02.03.2003 End date: 09.03.2003
1-minute MSW: 35 knots 10-minute MSW: 55 knots
|
* DPE for all storms in the 2001-2 season in the AUS basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Track forecast errors were below last season's average at al times except T+96 and skill scores were high. Nearly all forecasts correctly predicted the storm's south-westward turn which prevented landfall occurring.
Name: ERICA Identifier: 22P
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (SW Pacific)
Start date: 04.03.2003 End date: 15.03.2003
1-minute MSW: 140 knots 10-minute MSW: 115 knots
|
* DPE for all storms in the 2001-2 season in the AUS basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Erica dissipated within two days of forming, but then regenerated into an intense cyclone a few days later further to the north. Track forecast errors were near to last season's average overall and skill scores against CLIPER were high. The cyclone accelerated rapidly near the end of its life and forecasts were generally too slow.
Name: KALUNDE Identifier: 23S
Basin: SOUTH-WEST INDIAN
Start date: 04.03.2003 End date: 15.03.2003
1-minute MSW: 140 knots 10-minute MSW: 115 knots
|
* DPE for all storms in the 2001-2 season in the SWI basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Track forecast errors were below last season's average for this cyclone. Skill scores against CLIPER were modest. Some forecasts did not forecast the southward turn of the cyclone, although others did.
Name: CRAIG Identifier: 24S
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (Arafura Sea)
Start date: 09.03.2003 End date: 12.03.2003
1-minute MSW: 35 knots 10-minute MSW: 55 knots
|
* DPE for all storms in the 2001-2 season in the AUS basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
The formation of Craig was well predicted and the forecasts verified were also good. Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high.
Name: ESETA Identifier: 25P
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (SW Pacific)
Start date: 10.03.2003 End date: 14.03.2003
1-minute MSW: 110 knots 10-minute MSW: 95 knots
|
* DPE for all storms in the 2001-2 season in the AUS basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Eseta was a fast-moving storm and track forecast errors were above last season's average due to a slow bias.
2.2 Summary of all Tropical Cyclones
Mean error statistics for all tropical cyclones (of at least tropical storm strength) which have ended this month are shown below.
Total number of depressions ending this month:- 7
Number of storms used in statistics below:- 7
|
* DPE for all Southern Hemisphere storms in 2001-2 season
A plot of the observed tracks of this month's storms in the South-West
Indian Ocean.
A plot of the observed tracks of this month's storms in the Australian
basin.
On the whole, track forecast errors were below last season's average this month and skill scores against CLIPER were high. There was a slow bias in forecasts. The overall intensity tendency skill score was 52%.