1. Tropical cyclone activity
1.1 Tropical cyclones ending during the month
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Basin name abbreviations:-
NWP : North-West Pacific (west of 180°E)
NEP : North-East Pacific (east of 180°E)
NAT : North Atlantic
NI : North Indian (west of Malay Peninsula)
SWI : South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
AUS : Australian (east of 90°E)
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over
1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10
minutes (JMA Japan, southern hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.
1.2 Tropical cyclones still active at the end of the month
None.
2. FORECAST ERROR STATISTICS
The Met Office global Numerical Weather Prediction model produces a 6-day forecast every 12 hours. The performance of the model in forecasting this month's tropical cyclones is assessed below. Mean error statistics for each storm which ended during the month are presented together with a final table of statistics for all storms ending this month. Verification is performed at 24 hour intervals up to forecast time T+120. Some mean error statistics for last year's storms are included for the purposes of a comparison. The present global model has a resolution of 0.83°x 0.55°x 39 levels. This is equivalent to a horizontal resolution of 93km x 62km at the equator.
2.1 Individual Tropical Cyclone Summaries
Name: INIGO Identifier: 26S
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (SE Indian)
Start date: 01.04.2003 End date: 08.04.2003
1-minute MSW: 140 knots 10-minute MSW: 120 knots
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* DPE for all storms in the 2001-2 season in the AUS basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Up to T+72 forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high. The leftward turn towards land was generally well predicted, although there was a fast bias in forecasts resulting in an early prediction of landfall.
Name: KUJIRA Identifier: 02W
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 09.04.2003 End date: 25.04.2003
1-minute MSW: 130 knots 10-minute MSW: 90 knots
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* DPE for all storms in the 2002 season in the NWP basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Forecasts for this early season typhoon were very good with forecast errors below last season's average and high skill scores particularly at T+48 and T+72. There was a slight slow bias in forecasts. The detail of the storm's changes in direction when near the Philippines and Taiwan was well forecast by some runs, but not by others.
Name: LUMA Identifier: -
Basin: SOUTH-WEST INDIAN
Start date: 10.04.2003 End date: 12.04.2003
1-minute MSW: - 10-minute MSW: 65 knots
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* DPE for all storms in the 2001-2 season in the SWI basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Luma was a fast moving cyclone undergoing extra-tropical transition that was only recognised as a tropical cyclone by RSMC La Réunion. The two forecasts verified had a large slow bias.
Name: FILI Identifier: 27P
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (SE Pacific)
Start date: 14.04.2003 End date: 15.04.2003
1-minute MSW: 35 knots 10-minute MSW: 50 knots
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* DPE for all storms in the 2001-2 season in the AUS basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Fili was a short-lived tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
Name: ANA Identifier: 01L
Basin: NORTH ATLANTIC
Start date: 21.04.2003 End date: 24.04.2003
1-minute MSW: 45 knots 10-minute MSW: -
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* DPE for all storms in the 2002 season in the NAT basin
A plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts.
Ana was an early season tropical storm that was initially classified as sub-tropical. Track forecast errors were near to last season's average. Early forecasts tended to dissipate the storm too soon.
2.2 Summary of all Tropical Cyclones
Mean error statistics for all tropical cyclones (of at least tropical storm strength) which have ended this month are shown below.
Total number of depressions ending this month:- 5
Number of storms used in statistics below:- 5
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* DPE for all Northern Hemisphere storms in 2002 season
A plot of the observed tracks of this month's storms in the South
Indian Ocean.
A plot of the observed tracks of this month's storms in the Eastern
Australian basin.
A plot of the observed tracks of this month's storms in the North-West
Pacific basin.
A plot of the observed tracks of this month's storms in the North
Atlantic basin.
Average track forecast errors for this month's storms were below last season's (Northern Hemisphere) average and skill scores against CLIPER were good. Biases were variable and fairly small on average. The overall intensity tendency skill score was 30%.