Issued 26 February 2008
BackgroundThis forecast for Spring 2008 has been derived using a number of global forecasting models and statistical methods. Seasonal trends usually affect quite large geographic areas, so the forecast for the UK is cast in the broader picture for Europe as a whole.
Spring 2007 was the warmest on record for the UK (series from 1914) with a mean temperature 1.7°C above the 1971-2000 average. Rainfall last spring showed marked variations through the season, with a dry April and wet May, though totals for the season as a whole finished close to the long-term average.
Forecasts are expressed as variations from 1971-2000 averages. Spring, in this context, is defined as the months of March, April and May.
Forecast for Spring 2008
Temperature
Mean temperatures for the season as a whole are more likely to be either average or above average over much of the European region including the UK. Spells of below-average temperatures are likely, particularly in the early part of spring in north-west Europe and, for the UK, spring is likely to be cooler than last year.
Precipitation
For much of northwest Europe, including the UK, precipitation is more likely to be either average or below-average than above average.
