bullet  Home  bullet  Products and services  bullet  Water Management  bullet  

Flood forecasting and warning services


We have a wealth of experience in flood forecasting and warning systems and can apply this knowledge and expertise to projects in the UK and internationally. With severe weather and flooding incidences on the increase around the world, there are many projects requiring assessments of existing flood forecasting and warning systems and the scoping and provision of new systems. Car photo

The Met Office develops and uses complex numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for operational weather forecasting and quantitative precipitation forecasting. These are the principal source of weather and QPF forecasts for key clients including the UK military, the civil aviation authorities, and the national broadcasting agencies.

More about Numerical Weather Prediction
 
Nimrod
 

Nimrod is an automated system for weather analysis and nowcasting which is fully integrated with the UK's C-band rainfall radar network. It provides fine resolution analyses and six-hour forecasts to forecasters and Met Office customers direct. Nimrod also provides routine predictions of precipitation type, rainfall rate, rain accumulation, snow probability, cloud, wind gust speeds and, in recent versions, visibility and lightning. Work is in progress to develop a version of the Nimrod system to cover most of Europe including Iceland, Norway, Portugal, Italy and Greece.

More about Nimrod

 
Gandolf
 

Gandolf currently provides the best available very short-range forecast of rainfall intensity at 2 km resolution, drawing on techniques developed for Nimrod, a specialised thunderstorm model, and a project diagnosing convection. Currently, improvements are being made to the prediction of thunderstorm initiation. This activity will explore the contribution that additional information from numerical weather models, Nimrod, and satellites can make to assessing the risk of development of storms, especially severe ones. The scope will include convection embedded in frontal rainbands as well as isolated storms. Since convective cloud initiation has a significant random element, any algorithm development will be couched in probabilistic terms. The result will be a more realistic prediction of extreme rain rates, especially over small catchments. Forecast capabilities will increase lead times for convective events.

Outputs from this new research will be:

  • Probabilistic description of rain rate/accumulation forecasts
  • New code to improve prediction of thunderstorm initiation
  • All Gandolf products available up to six hours ahead
  • Improved forecasts of selected components of the precipitation field

 

For further information about working with the Met Office on weather solutions please contact our 24-hour Customer Centre or contact water@metoffice.gov.uk.