Key results from climate-change experiments conducted using Met Office Hadley Centre computer models of the climate system. The experiments assume that future emissions of greenhouse gases will follow the IS92a scenario, in which the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide more than doubles over the course of the 21st century. This is a 'business as usual' scenario, which assumes mid-range economic growth but no measures to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.
It is important to be aware that predictions from climate models are always subject to uncertainty because of limitations on our knowledge of how the climate system works and on the computing resources available. Different climate models can give different predictions.
Climate change results from the Met Office Hadley Centre
The globes below show latest results from the Met Office's climate change research. The data are based on a mid-range IPCC emissions scenario A1B.
Climate change and the greenhouse effect - a briefing from the Met Office Hadley Centre
This Met Office Hadley Centre briefing (published December 2005) is a collection of 60 slides with
notes, containing up-to-date knowledge of the state of the climate
and projections for the future.
Download Climate change and the greenhouse effect (PDF, 3.8 Mb)
A range of results from various Met Office Hadley Centre climate experiments are shown on the website of the Climate Impacts LINK project at the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. The LINK project is the main source for supply of Met Office Hadley Centre model data for use in research projects. A more limited range of data is available from the web site of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC).
Some of the diagrams below are maps of differences between the current climate, conventionally defined as 1960-1990, and the climate of the end of the 21st century, taken to be 2070-2100. For most quantities, changes are shown both for the annual average and for each of the four seasons December-January (DJF), March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and September-November (SON). The other diagrams are time-series, showing changes which occur as time passes.
The diagrams are provided in PostScript (PS) and GIF formats. The data used to make each diagram are also available in network common data form language (CDL). This is a plain-text equivalent of network common data form (netCDF), which is a machine-independent file format developed by and available from Unidata. We use the GDT netCDF convention.
| HadCM2 | HadCM3 | ||
| Surface air temperature: Change in the average temperature of air 1.5 metres above the ground (a typical height for standard meteorological measurements), in degrees Celsius | Time-series | PS GIF Global-CDL NH-CDL SH-CDL |
PS GIF Global-CDL NH-CDL SH-CDL |
| Annual map | PS GIF CDL | PS GIF CDL | |
| DJF map | PS GIF CDL | PS GIF CDL | |
| MAM map | PS GIF CDL | PS GIF CDL | |
| JJA map | PS GIF CDL | PS GIF CDL | |
| SON map | PS GIF CDL | PS GIF CDL | |
| Precipitation: Change in the total of rainfall and snowfall, in millimetres per day (liquid water equivalent for snowfall) | Annual map | PS GIF CDL | PS GIF CDL |
| DJF map | PS GIF CDL | PS GIF CDL | |
| MAM map | PS GIF CDL | PS GIF CDL | |
| JJA map | PS GIF CDL | PS GIF CDL | |
| SON map | PS GIF CDL | PS GIF CDL | |
| Soil moisture content: Change in the amount of water in the soil which is available to plants, in millimetres | Annual map | PS GIF CDL | PS GIF CDL |
| DJF map | PS GIF CDL | PS GIF CDL | |
| MAM map | PS GIF CDL | PS GIF CDL | |
| JJA map | PS GIF CDL | PS GIF CDL | |
| SON map | PS GIF CDL | PS GIF CDL | |
| Sea-level change: Change in mean sea level from ocean thermal expansion and melting of glaciers, in metres | Time-series | PS GIF total-CDL exp-CDL gl-CDL |
PS GIF total-CDL exp-CDL gl-CDL |
| Annual map | PS GIF CDL | PS GIF CDL | |
| Sea-ice area: Percentage change | Time-series | PS GIF NH-CDL SH-CDL |
PS GIF NH-CDL SH-CDL |
| Sea-ice volume: Percentage change | Time-series | PS GIF NH-CDL SH-CDL |
PS GIF NH-CDL SH-CDL |
